Analysis

TA: Why Bitcoin Price Could Correct Sharply If It Breaks 100 SMA

Bitcoin price attempted an upside break above the $ 19,500 resistance against the US Dollar, but failed. BTC could decline sharply if there is a clear break below the 100 hourly SMA.

  • Bitcoin is currently struggling to clear the key $ 19,500 resistance level.
  • The price is likely to continue lower below $ 19,150 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $ 19,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is likely to accelerate lower if there is a clear break below $ 19,150 and the 100 hourly SMA.

Bitcoin Price is Showing Bearish Signs

There was a fresh increase in bitcoin price above $ 19,250 and $ 19,400. BTC made another attempt to clear the $ 19,500 resistance, but it failed to gain bullish momentum.

A high was formed near $ 19,586 and the price is currently trading above the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the $ 19,400 level. The price even traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $ 18,851 low to $ 19,586 high.

Bitcoin is now trading near the $ 19,300 level. An initial support is near the $ 19,220 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $ 19,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $ 18,851 low to $ 19,586 high. The next key support is near the 100 hourly simple moving average at $ 19,120. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the 100 hourly SMA, and $ 19,000, the price could start a significant downside correction. The next major support could be $ 18,500.

Upside Break in BTC?

If bitcoin manages to stay above the trend line support and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it could rise above $ 19,400. The main resistance is near the $ 19,500 level.

The price must gain bullish momentum above the $ 19,500 level and the recent higher. A proper close above the $ 19,500 level could lead the price towards the main $ 20,000 barrier.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently just below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $ 19,200, followed by $ 19,150.

Major Resistance Levels – $ 19,400, $ 19,500 and $ 19,800.

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Technical analysis – NewsBTC

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