Analysis

TA: Bitcoin Correcting Gains, Why 100 SMA Could Trigger A Larger Decline

Bitcoin price formed a new yearly high close to $ 20,000 before correcting lower against the US Dollar. BTC could accelerate its decline if there is a clear break below the 100 hourly SMA.

  • Bitcoin is currently correcting lower below the $ 19,500 and $ 19,000 levels.
  • The price is approaching a key support at $ 18,350 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $ 18,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could decline heavily if it fails to stay above the 100 hourly SMA and $ 18,200.

Bitcoin Price is Grinding Lower

There was an upside extension in bitcoin price above the $ 19,500 resistance. BTC even surpassed the previous swing high and traded close to the $ 20,000 barrier. However, there was no test of $ 20,000 and the price reacted to the downside.

There was a sharp decline of more than 5% and the price traded below the $ 19,000 level. Bitcoin found support near the $ 18,100 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A swing low was formed near $ 18,111 before the price corrected higher.

There was a recovery above $ 19,000, but the bears protected the $ 19,500 zone. A high is formed near $ 19,512 and the price is currently declining. It is trading below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $ 18,111 swing low to $ 19,512 high.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

It seems like there is major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $ 18,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the downside, the price is approaching a key support at $ 18,350 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $ 18,111 swing low to $ 19,512 high is also near $ 18,400. A downside break below the $ 18,350 support and the 100 hourly SMA could spark a larger decline. The next major support could be $ 18,000 or $ 17,850.

Fresh Increase in BTC?

If bitcoin remains stable above the $ 18,350 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average, it could attempt a fresh increase. An initial hurdle for the bulls is near the trend line and $ 18,800.

The first major resistance is near the $ 19,000 level. A clear break above the $ 19,000 level could pump the price towards the $ 19,500 resistance level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently moving higher towards the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $ 18,350, followed by $ 18,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $ 18,800, $ 19,200 and $ 19,500.

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Technical analysis – NewsBTC

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